#美联储恢复降息进程 Did you see the betting data on Polymarket for a 25 basis point rate cut in December? The probability is quite high.

To be honest, this expectation is not unfounded. The scale of US national debt is such that it burns tens of billions of dollars in interest every day, creating immense fiscal pressure. Lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate the debt burden makes logical sense.

Moreover, the previous actions of the Federal Reserve have been quite obvious – they lowered interest rates and halted the balance sheet reduction, these actions are laid out clearly, and the policy direction has already been leaning towards easing. Historically, whenever there has been significant downward pressure on the economy, the Federal Reserve has basically unleashed liquidity; will this time be an exception?

But that being said, while the market is betting, it's really hard to say whether it will come to fruition on that day in December. Monetary policy is too complicated, with a multitude of influencing factors. As you can see, there are still a few institutions that insist on keeping interest rates unchanged, and their reasoning makes sense—although the economy is under pressure, it may not have reached the point where a cut is absolutely necessary, or there may be other factors that will keep the Federal Reserve from making a move.

For us ordinary traders, the most important thing is not to be driven by market sentiment. High probability ≠ 100%, the market is always full of surprises. To be practical, we still need to closely monitor hard indicators such as economic data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and changes in the global situation, and adjust our strategies based on the risks we can bear.

This macro-level fluctuation can have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the expectation of interest rate cuts fails, or if they do happen but the market reaction is different from what was expected, how the market will move will depend on the specific situation at that time. Stay vigilant and be ready to respond to changes at any time.