Starting today, we’ll also cover high-confidence sports markets each week.

One of our analysts has years of experience breaking down UFC matchups — and with prediction markets actively pricing these events every week, it makes sense to bring that edge here as well.

Here’s today’s read on @MerabDvalishvil vs @PetrYanUFC, based on both tape study and current market expectations across @Polymarket 🧵

So Monolith bet on @MerabDvalishvil today.

— Dvalishvili is close to making his fourth title defense within a single year, which would set a new @ufc record.
— Yan has rebuilt his form after a losing streak, but his competitive peak seems behind him. He’ll offer resistance, but he’s unlikely to withstand Merab’s pace over five rounds.

Key reasons:

1/ Their striking level is roughly equal (this isn’t a classic “wrestler vs striker” matchup).
2/ Merab’s freestyle wrestling is clearly superior.
3/ Grappling looks comparable on paper, but Yan still shows major back-exposure issues (Sterling fight being the clearest example).

“The Machine” should impose his usual style: relentless pace, constant takedowns, strong control on the ground.

The fight will most likely go the distance, but a late-round submission is possible.

Main risks: early striking exchanges + fatigue after a very active year.
Still, these are low-probability concerns.

Good luck to the champ, @MerabDvalishvil.