That four-year cycle pattern for BTC may really not work anymore.

The days of 70% deep bear markets are becoming rare. It’s not because the halving rules have changed, but because the people buying crypto have changed—the traditional crash mode of panic retail selling plus cascading exchange liquidations is disappearing.

Spot ETFs have changed the rules of the game. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative instrument on exchanges; now it can sit in brokerage accounts, following institutional compliance practices. Prices will still fluctuate wildly—that won't change—but those despair-inducing extreme bear markets? They might truly be history. The market is changing hands, and the way to play is changing too.