Brothers, pay attention—a plot twist is coming.

Those Wall Street institutions suddenly changed their tune last night—previously, their reports said “mainly wait and see,” but now each one is more aggressive than the next, calling for rate cuts. The market’s betting odds shot up to nearly 90%, which is basically an open secret now. The reason? November’s employment data was disappointing, and the Fed can’t hold out any longer.

But the real focus isn’t there. A 25 basis point rate cut? That’s just surface-level. What everyone’s watching now is what Powell will say tonight, and what signals the dot plot will reveal.

There are reports of serious internal disagreements: supposedly, four hawkish committee members voted against, and someone might even directly propose a 50 basis point cut. Even more crucial—if they cut this time, will they cut again next time? Goldman Sachs suggests they might pause and observe, but the market is betting on a series of easing moves. The Fed’s guidance is always ambiguous, so every word needs to be scrutinized.

So don’t get excited just seeing the words “rate cut.” Expectations have already been fully priced in, so be careful that good news turning real could actually become bad news. Tonight’s volatility all depends on whether Powell cheers on the market or throws cold water on it.

In short: things that are already nailed down are boring—the real focus is on disagreement and variables. Do you think this is the last drop, or the start of a new rally? Share your thoughts in the comments.