Are altcoins about to get up from their sickbed? Let’s look at the history books: every time Quantitative Tightening (QT) winds down, the altcoin/BTC trading pairs start to skyrocket!

**Here’s the pattern**: The Fed’s QT policy is like a water pump—once it stops, those suffocated altcoins immediately inflate like balloons and shoot up. The logic is simple: QT drains dollars from the market, making both Bitcoin and altcoins thirsty. But when the pump stops? Marginal liquidity improves, risk appetite returns, and money starts flowing out of Bitcoin, the "safe haven," into more elastic altcoins. The latter half of every bull market has always been the main stage for altcoins.

**But this cycle feels a bit off.**

First, Bitcoin has "changed"—retail used to rush into altcoins when they got cash, but now institutions might just keep buying Bitcoin ETFs. The money flows aren’t following the old script. Look at the macro environment: a single sentence from a Fed official is more influential than a ten-page whitepaper from a project team. The switch for altcoin season isn’t in the hands of any whale; it’s controlled by policymakers.

More importantly, **liquidity alone isn’t enough**. There needs to be a new, explosive narrative like last cycle’s DeFi Summer to draw funds out of Bitcoin’s comfort zone.

**What to watch next?**

Don’t just stare at the Fed’s statements—track hard data like overnight repo rates between banks. When real liquidity arrives, the market will truly move.

If BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) doesn’t drop below 40%, forget about a full-blown altcoin season. If Bitcoin doesn’t step aside, altcoins can’t take the stage.

Where’s the new narrative? AI, DePIN, RWA—whichever story is sexy enough could be the trigger.

**Bottom line**: The end of QT is just a "necessary condition" for altcoin revival, not a "sufficient condition." This time, it’s not just about liquidity; we need a strong new narrative to pry funds out of Bitcoin.

Will you be the one lining up at the door in advance, or the one scrambling only after the alarm goes off?