The December FOMC meeting is becoming the focus of global traders.

The FOMC will meet on December 9-10, and the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has almost become a consensus - the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability is as high as 87%, and once it lands, the federal funds rate will slide to the 3.75%-4% range. Even Morgan Stanley, which was relatively cautious before, has turned to a dovish stance in its latest report.

Driving this expectation is the increasingly clear division within the Fed. Governor Stephen Milan has not made secret of his concerns: current interest rate levels are crushing the job market and require more aggressive easing. New York Fed President Williams was more nuanced, mentioning that "there is still room for adjustment in the short term," emphasizing that policy should move closer to neutrality to avoid unnecessary harm to the workforce. The word "in the short term" has been interpreted by many analysts as the window for interest rate cuts has opened.

San Francisco Fed President Daly is more direct: No interest rate cut in December? Then the risk is too great. She believes that once there is a crack in the labor market, the wave of layoffs will be difficult to control, and inflation is still under the control of the Fed.

Of course, hawkish voices are not absent. Four voting officials expressed reservations about consecutive rate cuts, noting that inflationary pressures are spreading from the goods side to the service sector, and the base is expanding. Boston Fed President Collins supported a rate cut in October, but now hesitant, she feels that the current "moderately restrictive" interest rate may need to be maintained for some time.

To drop or not to fall? The answer to this game within the Fed will be revealed in a few days. This could be one of the most important catalysts for the crypto market to end the year.