After the market cleanup in November, will December be more stable? An institution gave this set of data

Question

The market cleanup in November may not be so bad.

A leading institution recently threw out a set of data: the perpetual contract holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL shrank by 16% compared to the previous month, and the US spot ETF outflowed 3.5 billion dollars of BTC and 1.4 billion ETH. More importantly, the BTC perpetual funding rate once fell below the 90-day moving average by two standard deviations, but now it has climbed back.

Their logic is interesting - the speculative bubble is almost squeezed. The system leverage ratio has dropped from a high of 10% of the total market value in the summer to a range of 4%-5%. The market structure has become solid, and there is a high probability that there will be no violent smashing before the end of the year.

To put it bluntly: everything that should be left is gone, and the chips left behind are more stable. December may be a breather.

TokenUnlocker · Accepted Answer

I feel that this set of data is a bit too optimistic, but the decline in leverage is indeed a good sign.

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Everything that should be gone? Why am I still losing money?

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Wait, the ETF only outflowed 1.4 billion? I remember that there was much more than this number flowing in before, and it didn't feel right.

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I believe that the perpetual fee rate will rebound, but whether it can breathe in December depends on the Fed's face.

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In any case, the leverage ratio was reduced from 10% to 4-5%, which really took the risk down. At least it's more comfortable than before.

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Seriously, market cleansing is said every month, and I'm a little numb now.

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I love to listen to the logic that the chips left behind are more stable, but I love to listen, and it depends on how the market goes at the end of the year.

LiquidationTherapist · Answer

Oh, another story of "the data is not so bad", I want to ask, how many positions do the institutions that say this hold themselves?

But then again, the leverage ratio did drop from 10% to 4-5%, which is not a deceptive detail. Those who should be liquidated have exploded, and the rest really have to be hard bones.

Can you breathe in December? I look at the suspense, but at least there aren't so many cannon fodder, it's true.

It seems that the plates that should be washed have been washed enough, and the next step is to see who still has bullets.

DogeBachelor · Answer

The data is good-looking, but I still can't believe it, after all, how many times has this wave been deceived by the false positive, let's really look at it in December

RektRecorder · Answer

Wait, is this data really fake? Is a 16% shrinkage not that bad? I directly liquidated 50% of my position in August