Polymarket shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is 93%, and market sentiment is high. But did you notice another number? The probability of "no interest rate cuts" in January next year has climbed to 68%.

This set of data is worth being wary of. If interest rates are really cut in December, it will only fulfill market expectations - the landing of good news often means that the good news is exhausted. Immediately after January, there is a high probability that liquidity expectations may cool down rapidly. This "sweeten first and then tighten" rhythm is not friendly to high-leverage positions and altcoin positions.

Looking back at the end of 2021, the market generally expected easing to continue. As a result, the Fed's policy suddenly shifted, and a large number of leveraged positions were liquidated. This time, the script may be more subtle - create a sense of security with a rate cut in December, and then break the illusion with a pause in January. If the New Year's Eve position is not prepared, it is easy to get hurt in the expected reversal.

A few coping ideas for reference:

Control leverage multiples, especially New Year's Eve positions. Market volatility can be more volatile than expected.

Prioritize the allocation of anti-volatility assets. BTC and ETH spot are relatively stable, so don't leave the market easily due to short-term fluctuations.

Keep some cash reserves. If the expected reversal triggers a pullback, it could be a window for a low layout.

The market never spreads all the cards out to you. It often shows the part of it that wants you to believe. Real traders are vigilant when optimistic and look for opportunities when they are pessimistic.

Interest rate cut expectations have been priced in for most of the time, and now it is more important to pay attention to unexpected changes. Only by doing a good job in risk control can we gain a firm foothold in uncertainty.