Recently, I saw Skiba, head of fixed income at Royal Bank of Canada, make a very interesting point - the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this time, but it may be the last time.

His logic is this: although the rate cut at the December meeting is basically certain, the US economy is running too hard now, and inflation and employment data do not support continuing to release water. Therefore, this rate cut is more like a "formality", and after the cut, the Fed will most likely step on the brakes and wait and see.

More importantly, he expects the U.S. economy to accelerate in 2026, when interest rate cuts will be less necessary. The only reason why another cut may be made is political factors - the new leadership may be symbolically cut once when the Fed changes in May next year, but from a purely economic point of view, there is no need for this.

The market is now staring at two groups of people: one group is a dovish committee member who feels that it should be lowered more; the other group is hawks, who believe that it should not be lowered at all. Skiba's team stood in the middle - it was enough to drop this time, and don't think about the future.

What does this mean for the crypto market? The window for rate cuts may be closing. If the Fed does shift to a "no further rate cuts" stance, liquidity expectations will tighten and risk assets may have to be repriced. There may still be room for a rebound in the short term, but don't expect to continue to live by releasing water like before.