#数字资产生态回暖 at 3 a.m., is the market really going to decide a winner or loser?

Since 23 o'clock last night, there has been a menacing rise in the currency market, and many traders have smelled the smell of mountain rain. When the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech come out at 3 a.m., I am afraid that I will have to guard the screen this night.

The direct catalyst for this wave of market is actually clear - the number of job openings in the United States exploded to 7.67 million in October, far exceeding market expectations of 7.15 million. There is a key signal behind the seemingly simple employment figures: the US job market is cooling slower than everyone thinks, and the economy is much more resilient than previous pessimistic expectations.

So the market began to make calculations. If the Fed does cut interest rates in the early hours of the morning, but the economic data is so tough, then the rest of the pace of easing in 2024 is likely to be forced to step on the brakes. Some traders have even begun to speculate - will this rate cut be the last jump of the cycle? It is precisely because of this ambiguous expectation that funds not only want to ambush before the good landing, but also drum up how much room for growth there is in the future, and the result is that "the good news has not yet arrived, let's talk about it first; Halfway up the rise, I began to doubt "this twisted situation."

How does that work? ** Let's be blunt - before 3 a.m., don't bet on one side, especially don't use high leverage to touch. To reveal the real direction of the market, we have to keep an eye on two things: first, whether Powell is dovish or hawkish at the press conference, which directly affects the emotional pulse of the market; Second, how officials' dot plots will guide the policy pace in 2024 will determine whether there is room for interest rate cuts in the future.

By turning these two keys, you can judge whether the current rebound is the starting point of a new trend or another trick to lure you to the bull.

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