It's going to be fried tonight. At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce a new round of interest rate decisions.

The market is betting on the same outcome: another 25 basis points to bring interest rates to the range of 3.5%-3.75%. This is already the third consecutive rate cut.

But don't be paralyzed by the word "rate cut" - this time it's weird.

A tearing drama is unfolding within the Fed. One group is worried that the employment data will continue to collapse, and they insist that it should be loosened to the end; The other faction stares at the inflation figures and feels that if it is loosened, it will be playing with fire. So a paradoxical word appeared: "hawkish rate cuts". What do you mean? It is a superficial interest rate cut, but it actually implies that "don't expect to have it next time".

There are four things to keep an eye on tonight:

First, how Powell will speak. **

His press conference and post-meeting statement can basically determine how the market will go in the next few months. Goldman Sachs predicts that the wording may return to the vague "we will adjust the rhythm and amplitude according to the data" - which translates: will it be lowered next time? It depends on the situation. The threshold has been raised.

Second, dot plots and polls will be fought. **

This vote may result in a rare number of negative votes. Schmid in Kansas City is likely to vote again; Mussalem in St. Louis could also be backlash over concerns about inflation — more than a third of economists are said to guess. Even more dramatic is the director Milan, who may have operated in reverse and directly demanded a 50 basis point cut.

Third, the data is embarrassing. **

Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in September, does that sound good? But it's still far from the 2% target. At the same time, the job market began to show timidity: hiring shrank in October and layoffs increased. The Fed is now like a sandwich biscuit sandwiched between two ends.

Fourth, balance sheet reduction may have to be reversed. **

In addition to interest rates themselves, there is another signal worth noting: the Fed just announced in October that it would stop shrinking its balance sheet, and now it may have to restart its bond purchase program due to tight market liquidity. Although they will not call this "quantitative easing", the substance is similar.

So this decision is unusual - cutting interest rates while tightening expectations. Tightrope.

The market has partially priced in this expectation, but if "this is the last rate cut" is really confirmed, many asset pricing may have to be reshuffled. Can BTC take advantage of this wave? How will ETH be accepted? It all depends on how it plays tonight.

What signal do you think the Fed will send tonight?