At 3 a.m. tonight (Thursday), the results of the Fed's FOMC meeting will be announced, and Powell's press conference will follow. This could be a crucial moment in determining gold's trajectory in the near term.

There is widespread speculation that it will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the interest rate range to 3.50%-3.75%. But what really needs to be watched is the dot plot and the summary of economic expectations - if there is only one rate cut in 2026 (median 3.9%), then hawkish sentiment may dominate the next market.

Powell's speech will take the market in two directions:

If he sends dovish signals — such as hinting at two or three rate cuts in 2026 or lowering inflation expectations — gold is likely to rise directly and break through the $4,300 mark.

But if he has a hawkish tone - emphasizing that the job market is still very resilient and only plans to cut interest rates once in 2026 - then the price of gold is likely to pull back, and the support level is in the range of 4220 to 4180.

It is said that there is no consensus within the Fed on this rate cut, and hawks have expressed opposition. So Powell may emphasize that the threshold for future rate cuts will be higher.

For those who pay attention to tokenized gold, tonight's meeting may affect both traditional gold prices and the volatility of on-chain gold assets. Prepare with both hands.