BTC suddenly gained strength on Tuesday, and the price once hit $94,625 - a price not seen in nearly three weeks, and the last time was on November 25.

On-chain data shows that this wave of rally has significantly warmed up market sentiment. Retail investors began to shout "breakthrough" and "higher", FOMO sentiment rose again, and everyone began to look forward to higher price targets. However, the excitement did not last long, and the price had fallen back to around $92,400 at the time of writing.

Interestingly, data companies have observed a phenomenon that after each monthly high, small traders often behave contrary to the actual market trend. In other words, when retail investors are most optimistic, it may be the signal that the price is about to turn.

The real test is yet to come. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and the futures market shows an 88.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Jeff Mei, COO of an exchange, put it bluntly: "BTC's rise may be aimed at the expectation of interest rate cuts, but what will happen after the Fed meeting?" It's hard to say now. "

He specifically reminded that if the Fed is vague about future interest rate cuts or releases hawkish signals, the market may immediately change its face. After all, cryptocurrencies have always been highly sensitive to macro policies, and any unexpected statement at such a critical moment can trigger sharp fluctuations.

In the short term, the trend of BTC is estimated to depend on the Fed's mouth.