#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 Thursday at 03:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, and the market is waiting for this moment.

On the news side, following the successive rate cuts in September and October, traders are almost all betting on another cut this time - the target range of the federal funds rate is expected to fall from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. CME futures data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 87%. It looks like a nail in the head.

But it's not that simple. With the government shutdown leaving key economic data void and rare disagreements within the Fed, Powell may be forced to play the "hawkish rate cut" card - that is, cutting interest rates while releasing a more cautious forward-looking signal to cool the market. After all, he had previously warned that a rate cut in December was "far from a foregone conclusion".

Several major investment banks on Wall Street have recently changed their minds. Morgan Stanley has abandoned the judgment of "standing still" and now, like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, expects this round of interest rate cuts to occur. Their logic is: inflation expectations are falling, and even hawks are beginning to accept rate cuts. Morgan Stanley also pointed out that the previous prediction of the pause in interest rate cuts may have been "too hasty", and then the Fed's monetary policy will enter a "decision-by-decision" mode and completely follow the data.

Looking back, the interest rate path will be very uneven. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in January and April, bringing the final rate down to 3.0%-3.25%. However, Danske Bank believes the opposite - they believe that a pause in January is very likely, because the new voting committee members in 2026 have publicly opposed the October rate cut. According to Danske's benchmark forecast, the remaining two rate cuts will be pushed back to March and June.

The inflection point of interest rate policy is often a turning point in the crypto market. The follow-up statement of this resolution may be more critical than the numbers themselves.