What do you think of the interest rate cut decision at three o'clock in the morning? Lie down and watch.

The 25 basis point rate cut is basically gone, and this matter has long been guessed by the market. What really stimulates it is after the interest rate cut - what Powell's mouth says will determine where the market will go next.

He will directly say to death, "After the drop, I will stop cooking this time"? Or make some vague statements to leave room for reverie in the market? Each word will be interpreted with eight hundred meanings.

Looking back on the interest rate cut in October, Powell poured cold water on it at the time - warning that inflation could rebound, and emphasizing that December's actions were "far from dead". You know, since March 2021, inflation has been floating above the Fed's 2% target line. Recent labor data has been a bit weak, with PCE data showing that inflation is cooling, all of which are boosting expectations of rate cuts. But the initial jobless claims released last week hit a more than three-year low – both a relief (the labor market hasn't collapsed) and a more entangled Fed (the data is too divisive).

The external environment is also chaotic enough: the fiscal pressure brought about by the government's large-scale tax cuts and spending plans, the uncertainty of tariff policy, the questioning of the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the 43-day government shutdown that has led to the inability to release key economic data, making the entire decision-making difficult.

I personally boldly guess: Powell will be dovish this time, and after the interest rate cut lands, it will directly benefit the US stock market and the currency circle to take off, and the carnival will last until December 19 - the day the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, and then the black swan comes.

Of course, this is just my opinion. The market is always crazier than predicted.