Important Reminder: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, and a half-hour later, Powell will hold a press conference. Market sentiment is already tense, so get ready for volatility.

First, let's talk about the timeline—on December 10th at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, the decision results will be released, which is 3:00 AM here; Powell's press conference will follow immediately afterward, starting at 3:30.

How does the market view it? The mainstream expectation is a 25 basis point rate cut, with the rate range adjusted to 3.50%-3.75%, which has a 93% probability. But the key point is: it's likely to be a "hawkish rate cut"—meaning a cut, but the threshold for further cuts will be raised. Several details to watch closely include: how the dot plot adjusts, how many members vote against (estimated 2 to 4 votes), whether the balance sheet will mention the $45 billion monthly short-term debt purchase plan, and what Powell will say about the rate cut pathway in 2026.

What impact might this have on the crypto market? I see three possibilities:

First, if the rate cut happens as expected—the dollar weakens, liquidity relaxes, and the cost of holding crypto assets decreases. Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH could get a boost, with prices trending upward, and activity in DeFi and staking also picking up. Plus, if institutional policies become more friendly towards entry, the upward momentum will be even stronger.

Second, if there's a hawkish rate cut or no cut at all—risk appetite will be suppressed, the dollar will rebound, and mainstream coins may pull back. Altcoins like SOL and XRP, which are more sensitive to sentiment, could see more exaggerated volatility, possibly triggering large liquidations.

Third, if there's significant disagreement within the decision-making body—more opposition votes, policy direction becomes unclear, and funds tend to flock into large-cap coins like BTC for safety. Smaller coins will see valuation divergence due to capital withdrawal, and market trading volume fluctuations will amplify.

In summary: stay vigilant with risk management, keep up with policy cues, and avoid pitfalls.