Today, the A-share market once again staged a rollercoaster ride.

In the early morning, the four major indices collectively fell silent, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 30 points directly, and the ChiNext Board was even more aggressive, plunging by 2% at one point, leading everyone downward. Just when everyone thought today's trading would end here, the afternoon suddenly turned around—the ChiNext Board stubbornly climbed out of the trough to turn green, completing a stunning 70-point reversal.

# # Which sectors are causing trouble today?

The top of the gainers list is dominated by the Hainan Free Trade Zone, which led the pack with a 6% surge. But honestly, I’ve seen too many regional theme plays like this; in the past three weeks, Hainan and Fujian have taken turns rallying like a relay race, but most of it has been a "one-day wonder" pattern. If you're really interested in these two sectors, avoid chasing highs—wait for a pullback and then strike is the right approach.

The real estate sector also joined the excitement today, with Vanke and China Fortune Land Directly hitting the limit up, and Poly Developments also rose over 5%. But you need to understand that this rebound in real estate stocks is essentially a oversold bounce. Take Vanke, for example—this year, it’s expected to lose over 20 billion yuan. Whether it can turn losses into profits next year remains uncertain—given the continuous performance blowouts, how can the stock price sustain a sustained rally? Difficult.

On the other hand, the science and technology innovation board's secondary new stocks are quite interesting, with an overall gain of over 2%. The newly listed N BaiAo shot up directly to double the limit at 130%, and last Friday's listing of Mo Wei Thread was even more aggressive—after a 400% surge on the first day, it rose another 18% today to set a new record high. Behind this rally is the policy dividend of slowing IPO issuance—new stocks doubling on listing directly ignited the entire sector's sentiment. Now, IPOs are back to the "sure-win" golden era, especially for new stocks in the Zhongchuang (创新创业) market, where a single subscription can be worth at least a few thousand yuan, and lucky investors might even see dozens of thousands. I recommend everyone actively participate in subscription applications.

# # Is the overall market stable or not?

From a technical perspective, although the Shanghai Composite Index re-closed above the 5-day moving average in the afternoon, the 20-day moving average pressing down looks like a giant stone overhead. If it cannot break through this line, continuing strength in the short term is unlikely. What’s even worse is the trading volume—today's Shanghai market volume was only around 730 billion yuan, shrinking by 50 billion from yesterday.

A shrinking volume is a dangerous sign. If in the last two days of this week, the trading volume still cannot break through the 8 trillion yuan mark, the Shanghai Index is very likely to continue drifting downward in a shadow correction, with even the risk of accelerated decline. To put it simply, the market now just needs a spark—without new capital inflows, the index can only grind below the 20-day moving average.

# # What's the next move?

With only three weeks left until the end of 2025, there are two directions worth watching closely:

**First direction: Concept of Annual Report Pre-Increase**
The window for annual report disclosures is approaching, and the first quarter has always been the golden period for the explosion of the pre-increase concept. Low-valued blue chips with stable growth and high-quality companies with doubled profits will become hot favorites for funds. Concepts like pre-increase in annual reports, high dividend payouts, high share repurchases, and ST (special treatment) removal are worth deep exploration over the next three months.

The key is to find those companies that have seen strong performance in the first three quarters but whose stock prices have seriously lagged. These companies have a high certainty of profit growth in 2025, and after their performance is confirmed, there is considerable room for the stock price to catch up.

**Second direction: Oversold Consumer Themes**
The Chinese New Year in 2026 falls in mid-February, which leaves roughly 40 trading days. Every year, as the Spring Festival approaches, consumer themes become the main focus for funds, but this year, the overall consumer sector has been stagnant, with many targets severely oversold. When the Spring Festival consumption peak season arrives, the oversold consumer stocks are expected to rebound strongly—especially high-profit, low-valued, high-dividend blue chips that are also oversold.

In the short term, there are opportunities for rebound from oversold levels; in the long term, stable performance growth can support stock prices. These types of stocks can be both offensive and defensive, with relatively high certainty.

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To summarize: the market is currently in a state of oscillation and bottom-building, with significant resistance to short-term breakthroughs. However, there are structural opportunities—namely, the two main lines of annual report pre-increase and oversold consumer sectors—that can serve as key focuses for upcoming layouts. Remember, don’t chase highs; buying on dips and laying in wait is the way to go.