Tonight at 3 a.m. US Federal Reserve decision, the market is giving an 88% probability of a rate cut, which is essentially a lock. The price movement yesterday has already reflected this expectation in advance.

But there's a point to watch out for—after this cut, it's highly likely that there will be no change in January, and the next rate cut window won't open until three months later. During this gap, the market will have ample time to digest, and it might also leave room for the bears to play.

The current situation is a bit awkward. Liquidity is already tight, relying solely on the rate cut expectations to support it. Once the decision is announced, will there be a deep correction? Or even force the Fed to restart easing? Let's wait and see.

From a technical perspective, for Bitcoin to continue upward, it needs to stabilize above 94,000 in the next few hours; failure to do so will likely lead to a pullback. Ethereum's key level is around 3380; if it can't push higher before the announcement, a retracement is quite possible.

As for the retracement targets: Bitcoin around 90,600, and Ethereum around 3170 might find support.

Regardless of whether there's a rate cut tonight or not, I personally lean towards the possibility that after a rebound, there could still be room for a pullback. The market is always changing, so risk management is the most important.