The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time, bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. But to be honest, it's still quite a ways off from the "below 2%" that a certain former president has been eager for.

If you really think the Fed will only cut once or twice next year, you might still be too conservative. Markets often underestimate how much political pressure can influence decisions.

There was nothing unexpected about this rate cut itself, but the signals released after the meeting were notably more dovish than expected.

The dot plot did not show the feared "hawkish pivot" (such as no rate cuts after 2026), but instead raised the economic growth forecast for the next two years, lowered inflation expectations, and maintained the pace of one rate cut per year—classic "Goldilocks" scenario (neither too hot nor too cold).

Jerome Powell's stance at the press conference was also quite interesting. He seemed to revert to the tone from August's Jackson Hole symposium, repeatedly emphasizing the risk of a weakening labor market, while downplaying inflation pressures. This shift in language can be seen as a preemptive warning to the market.

Another point worth noting is that the technical balance sheet expansion (RMP) starting December 12 will have an initial scale of $40 billion, which is somewhat more aggressive in both magnitude and timing than market expectations prior to this.

For the crypto market, such a shift in monetary policy generally means a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions, which could boost short-term sentiment. Of course, the actual trend will still depend on real capital flows and changes in risk appetite.