#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Crypto circles, the more you observe, the more you realize—when the market is good, everyone is a prophet; when it's bad, even the basics like shakeouts and distribution become indistinguishable.

Last week, a friend told me that MATIC had dropped 18%, seeing it as a shakeout opportunity and wanting to add to his position at the bottom. I looked at the candlestick chart and was immediately stunned.

This is definitely not a shakeout.

Mass selling with no volume, key support broken, continuous downward candles—this combination of signals leads to only one conclusion: they are distributing, not shakeout. Shakeouts are meant to lure you into selling at a loss; distribution is smashing so you can't escape.

He still said, "It has dropped before, and it rebounded afterward." I've heard this too many times. Every novice, during their first major dip, likes to justify the current risk with past market behavior.

I told him three key points to judge:

**First, has a key level been broken through by a single bearish candle?**

**Second, is there a significant increase in volume during the decline?**

**Third, after breaking, can it bounce back properly?**

If any of these don't match, don't think about bottom-fishing. Shakeouts turn quickly; distribution turns slowly or may not turn at all—that's the fundamental difference.

Honestly, instead of obsessing over whether it's a shakeout or not, ask yourself: do you want to spend your life chasing highs and selling lows to be a leek, or learn to get on the train at the right position?

$BTC $ETH $SOL These characteristics of the mainstream coins' bottoms are always the same. Mastering this logic is more useful than all indicators.