#美联储降息 Is it good news turning into bad news? The bizarre movement of Bitcoin after the Federal Reserve's rate cut

Last night's events are somewhat ironic. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which should be positive news, but Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $94,500 to below $92,000, causing over 110,000 traders to get liquidated across the entire network. This scene perfectly illustrates the old trick of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."

But the logic behind it is even more interesting. On the surface, rate cuts are good for risk assets, but opposition votes within the Federal Reserve are increasing, and the dot plot indicates that future rate cuts will slow down, hinting at a hawkish tone. This creates an awkward situation: policy has been implemented, but the actual content differs from market expectations.

Even more painful is the current situation. ETF funds have recently been net outflows, and institutional trading activity is extremely weak. The market indeed seems somewhat fragile. But you know what? There’s a major event most people are ignoring— the Federal Reserve has stopped quantitative tightening and is likely to launch a reserve rebuilding plan exceeding $400 billion. Historically, Bitcoin's reaction to such global liquidity changes is much more sensitive than to a single rate adjustment. Once this gate opens, that will be the real decisive force.

So how should we view the future market now? Focus on two signals:

**First is the direction.** The $93,500 level is critical. Breaking through it could make $100,000 and even higher levels a real possibility. If it fails to break through? The market might return to the strong support zone between $82,000 and $75,000, gathering strength first.

**Second is sentiment.** Data shows that retail investors' sell-off has dropped to historic lows, indicating that those with less conviction have already exited their positions. This is actually a good sign. Major institutions like JPMorgan also say that although the recent correction is a bit painful, it’s not enough to turn into a bear market. A 80% drop and a complete "crypto winter"? That’s unlikely to happen again.

Simply put: in the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate with macro sentiment. But in the mid-term, the extremely pessimistic atmosphere, the cleared leverage, and the potential upcoming global liquidity shift all point to a very attractive accumulation window. The big move might only start when everyone stops talking about rate cuts and begins to confirm that "the water is really coming."