Early morning, the Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. As expected.

As previously mentioned, the landing of the economic "boot" often signals the end of positive news. The recent stock market rally has largely benefited from the interest rate cut. But as this benefit is about to be exhausted, the upcoming adjustments may be unavoidable.

Looking ahead in the next few months: US economic data remains relatively strong, and inflation is still hovering at the upper end of the target range. Will the Fed continue to ease? Chances are slim. On the contrary, Japan’s economy is doing well, and the probability of the central bank raising interest rates is about 90%. Additionally, with Christmas approaching, market appetite for funds will grow increasingly, and liquidity will become tighter.

In such an environment, lacking new strong stimulants, I believe that over the next half month to early next year (around January to February), market pressure will persist, and the trend may not be very optimistic.

Honestly, the current liquidity situation cannot be compared to the super cycle of commodities years ago. The current market is too fragile to withstand any minor turbulence. Once unforeseen negative news emerges, panic sentiment can be easily ignited, leading to a wave of selling. Whether the 80,000 mark can be held remains uncertain. Further declines could have even more room.