Let's discuss the potential impact of recent changes in the Federal Reserve's stance on Bitcoin, breaking down the short-term to long-term trend logic.

**Recently, the price is fluctuating within a consolidation range**

$BTC is likely to move back and forth within the $89,350-$92,000 range. If $89,350 holds as support, it is a solid floor; $92,000 acts as the ceiling. A volume breakout above $91,000 could attempt to test whether $92,000 can be surpassed; conversely, if it falls below $89,350, support levels at $88,500-$89,000 are waiting. Policy signals seem to have been largely digested, with no new catalysts in the short term.

**Mid-term outlook remains quite pressured**

The Federal Reserve has clearly stated that "when and how much to cut rates" remains uncertain, with major institutions generally betting that the January meeting will be a hold. Maintaining high interest rates long-term could significantly damage the valuation of risk assets like Bitcoin. Therefore, in the next 1-3 months, expect a phase of weak oscillation—unless inflation or employment data dampen rate cut expectations, in which case BTC might bounce back towards $94,000; otherwise, continued pressure could see a dip to $88,000.

**Next year’s first half still requires observation**

The Fed is likely to enter a wait-and-see phase in the first half of next year. Coupled with uncertainties from leadership changes, this will likely cause BTC to remain in a wide oscillation—anticipated to swing between $85,000 and $95,000. Essentially, this period is about accumulating strength for a policy inflection point.

**The key window is in the second half of the year**

If the Fed resumes rate cuts in March or June as market expectations suggest, liquidity loosening will be the most direct positive for Bitcoin. Additionally, as regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry gradually improve (with regulations in the US and Europe), institutional investors’ enthusiasm for allocation will also be stimulated. By then, breaking through the $95,000 resistance level becomes likely, making a new rally a real possibility.

(Just personal analysis; the market is complex, proceed with caution)