Market Analysis — 12.12

Continuing the previous viewpoint

1) From the chart, it is very clear that the price is constantly testing 94.
There has been a large amount of sell pressure at 94-95.
After rejecting 94, each pullback is higher than the previous low.
And this process is all straight up and down.

2) Why is there such manipulation?
First: The formation of resistance at 94-95 is building liquidity. I believe many people are taking positions around 94-95, with stop-losses at 95, offering a high risk-reward ratio.
Naturally, this accumulates a large amount of short-term liquidity.
Once it breaks through 95, a lot of short stop-losses will turn into fuel, pushing the price higher.
Second: Each time the price pulls back, the lows are higher.
This is a structural view; I believe this is a healthy oscillating upward trend.
It hasn't yet become so frustrating as to break below previous lows and enter a more annoying range-bound oscillation.
This also indicates that smart money is protecting their cost basis—around 89.

Third: Why is it all oscillating — straight up and down?
Two reasons: First, liquidity has indeed been poor recently. Since the 10.11 event, it has worsened. This poor liquidity is not only due to reduced participation funds but also because market makers are leaving.
Poor liquidity makes manipulation easier.
Secondly: Profit-taking through oscillations, shaking out chips, and making retail traders chase highs and sell lows, hitting stop-losses to make money.
Recently, many market movements seem to be designed for liquidation, with many false breakouts.

3) Why do I favor a bullish outlook?
First: Based on the large order statistics from 11.19 to now, there is buying activity. The average buy order price is around 89.
This is why there is a continuous pullback to 89; there is a process of accumulation here.
Second: The macro bad news is mostly over for now. As long as recession expectations are not confirmed, things won't get worse.
Even if bad news appears, the market will likely rally first before falling, right?
At least they need to unload their holdings first.
Third: Currently, the 94-95 sell orders are creating resistance. As mentioned earlier, this is likely a liquidity trap.
Once smart money’s short orders are canceled and buy orders push the price, causing short squeezes, then a breakout above 95 could send it to 10.

In summary, I believe that as long as it stays above 89, the trend is bullish.
The more times it tests 94, the higher the probability of a breakout.