Analyst Says End of the Line for FalconX’s XRP Dark Pool

The debut of the 21Shares XRP ETF has renewed focus on FalconX’s takeover of 21Shares and how this deal might increase the odds of an XRP supply squeeze

Notably, the conversation gained momentum following the ETF launch on Dec. 11. Amid the discussions, community members revisited FalconX’s Oct. 22 announcement that it would acquire 21Shares

21Shares Debut XRP ETF After FalconX Acquisition

For context, FalconX already serves more than 2,000 institutional clients and runs a broad operation that covers OTC trading, liquidity services, and crypto derivatives. With the acquisition, FalconX plans to connect its large trading network with 21Shares’ record in building and managing crypto ETFs across global exchanges.

After the launch, speculation surged across X as several analysts argued that FalconX’s takeover could set the stage for an XRP supply shock. Most of these community figures believe the acquisition and the ETF debut create conditions where demand could grow faster than supply

How Could 21Shares XRP ETF Deplete FalconX’s Pool?

“Well, there goes the rest of Falcon X dark pool of XRP,” XRP community figure and DAG CEO Jake Claver said. Claver’s comment builds on the claims that FalconX’s pool of XRP could deplete significantly from TOXR demand.

For context, FalconX manages deep OTC liquidity pools that hold billions of XRP from whales, institutions, and large traders. These pools support massive private transactions without affecting prices on public exchanges. FalconX also handles derivatives, settlement, and credit services for its institutional network, making it a primary source of XRP exposure for big players.

At the same time, 21Shares depends on actual XRP holdings to back its ETF. Its launch of TOXR required millions of XRP upfront. If the ETF attracts strong inflows, the company will need to purchase even more, possibly hundreds of millions of tokens, as assets under management expand

Because 21Shares now operates under FalconX, it can draw directly from FalconX’s OTC reserves. This creates a fast, efficient loop where investors buy ETF shares, brokers redeem them, and FalconX supplies the XRP. This process shifts more XRP from private liquidity pools into long-term ETF storage, removing those tokens from daily circulation.

Potential XRP Supply Shock?

XRP community members believe this whole process could tighten supply over time. Importantly, the ETF gives pension funds, retirement plans, and other traditional investors an easy entry into XRP, which could raise demand

As FalconX’s OTC reserves collapse, buyers may move to public exchanges where supply remains much thinner. This could push prices higher, similar to Bitcoin’s jump after its ETF launches in early 2024, when strong inflows supported a rally above $100K.

However, it is important to note that broader economic trends could slow demand or weigh on prices. Despite this, recent on-chain activity, including the latest $1 billion AuM milestone from existing XRP ETFs, supports the idea that large buyers continue to build positions.