2025-12-12 15:21:56

I have a clearer understanding now: BTC has indeed entered a bear market cycle. But there is a very important detail—don't be blinded by past historical scripts.

The decline and duration of this bear market definitely won't be as severe as before. Why? Because BTC is no longer a small business. With a market cap of 1.88 trillion USD, the players involved have completely changed.

Looking back, early on, BTC's pricing power was in the hands of miners, large holders, and exchanges. But after this bull run, the situation has completely reversed—the Wall Street institutions have firmly grasped the pricing power. The nature of the market has changed, and naturally, the game rules have to change as well.

So, looking at the current bear market, a 60% drop in BTC is already the ceiling. Those dreaming that it will bottom out at 30,000-40,000 USD and then buy in? Honestly, most of that is just a mirage. The fish in the entire pool have changed, and so have the fishing methods. From now on, BTC is no longer a battlefield where ordinary investors can participate casually—it has completely evolved into a chip game among institutions.

BTC-2,92%

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DiamondHands

· 2025-12-15 11:27

Hmm... That makes sense, but I feel like there's a bit of a logical issue. Can institutional pricing really stabilize things? History tends to repeat itself, after all.

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GasGuzzler

· 2025-12-13 18:42

60% decline ceiling? I don't think so, institutions will also dump the market.

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FlashLoanLarry

· 2025-12-13 09:05

nah the 60% floor take is interesting but you're sleeping on basis point calculations here—institutional vol floors don't work like retail panic anymore, capital utilization metrics tell a different story tbh. the liquidity depth argument holds but protocol dynamics around derivatives suggest otherwise... told you so incoming

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BankruptcyArtist

· 2025-12-12 15:40

You're not wrong; Wall Street has already locked in the lower limit, and retail investors just think about buying the dip.

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staking_gramps

· 2025-12-12 15:36

Wall Street has already turned the game of BTC into its own; retail investors like us have long been out.

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WalletDivorcer

· 2025-12-12 15:36

Institutions have already sold us retail investors out, and you're still dreaming of bottom-fishing here.

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SolidityStruggler

· 2025-12-12 15:27

A 60% drop is the ceiling? Are you comforting yourself or truly believing it? These guys on Wall Street wouldn't be so kind.

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RugResistant

· 2025-12-12 15:25

That's a reasonable point, but should we really accept fate as ordinary retail investors? I believe institutional pricing power has indeed strengthened, but don't say the threshold is so absolute—if you don't have enough money, you really can't get into the battlefield? That's nonsense. I have to question the 60% ceiling judgment; historical experience values are just a few bucks.

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