$SOMI $LUNA $BTC

Market Recap: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates overnight, seen as a "positive" news, but BTC plummeted instantly—over 100,000 longs liquidated, and 200 million in funds wiped out.

It sounds unbelievable, but it happened exactly that way.

Institutions had already absorbed expectations in advance, and as soon as the news was confirmed, they started unloading. Retail investors were still chasing the news while big funds had already stepped back. This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" playbook—happens every time, and someone always falls for it.

Let's review how the script has played out:
In October, there was widespread speculation about rate cuts, and BTC surged to 110,000;
In November, expectations failed, and the price halved to 80,000;
This time, the rate cut actually happened, retail investors rushed in, buying at 95,000, only to see it crash to 89,000 within 24 hours—longs collectively laid flat.

What’s even more painful is that Federal Reserve Chair Powell added fuel to the fire: there might be only one rate cut in 2026. This indicates liquidity is far from as loose as imagined, and the market’s dream is shattered. The big hole in global liquidity cannot be plugged by small interest rate cuts.

The next risk point is December 18. The Bank of Japan might hike interest rates; if that happens, global liquidity will tighten further, and BTC will continue to face downward pressure.

Honestly speaking: when everyone loudly claims "positive" news, it’s often already at the peak. This sell-off has taught retail investors a lesson—when the news and data are in front of you, execution depends on the institutions’ attitude.

The question is—where is the bottom for BTC? If the Bank of Japan really hikes rates, how much more can it fall? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments.