Next week's macro outlook: CPI data incoming, potentially further confirming the reasonableness of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle

On December 13th, despite the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut this week and the dovish signals beyond expectations, the real-world challenges faced by the artificial intelligence sector have led to a complex and differentiated trend in the US stock and bond markets. Long-term US Treasury yields rose across the board this week, with the 10-year US Treasury yield increasing by about 5 basis points during the “Federal Reserve Rate Cut Week.” The macro outlook for next week is as follows: On Monday at 22:30, Federal Reserve Board member Milan will give a speech; on Monday at 23:30, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak on economic outlook; on Thursday at 01:30, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will discuss economic outlook; on Thursday at 21:30, US November unadjusted CPI year-over-year/core CPI year-over-year, and US November seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month/core CPI month-over-month; on Thursday at 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13; on Friday at 23:00, US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value and US December one-year inflation expectation final value. Next week’s US CPI data release will be a key turning point for the dollar’s movement. If the CPI data is below expectations (the latest figure is 3%, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target), it will further confirm the reasonableness of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; conversely, it could reverse this trend.