2025-12-14 15:25:55

A recent interesting phenomenon has emerged in the prediction market—participants betting on a 0.25% rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week account for as much as 98%, and this number has been steadily climbing since the beginning of the month, indicating a very consistent market expectation for this rate increase.

All eyes are focused on December 19th, when the Bank of Japan's rate decision will be announced.

Looking back at the previous two rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the market reactions were quite intense. The January 24th hike last year was a typical example—Bitcoin plummeted directly from $105,000 to $75,000. The ripple effects caused by external central bank policies truly have a significant impact on the prices of crypto assets.

BTC-2,32%

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MetaverseVagabond

· 2025-12-17 15:05

A 98% confidence level is so high that it feels a bit risky... The stronger the market consensus, the easier it is to be manipulated in the opposite direction.

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MoonMathMagic

· 2025-12-15 22:22

98% are betting on this side? It feels a bit too uniform... Historically, when there's such a high consensus, it's actually easier to get crushed.

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blockBoy

· 2025-12-15 01:04

98% consensus? It feels a bit too uniform and actually seems dangerous. Last time the central bank caused such a fuss, the crypto market plummeted by 30%. This time the stakes are so high, who dares to take the risk? Let's wait until the 19th; it might be another bloody storm. The central bank plays even rougher than us; the crypto circle is really being manipulated to death by them. This level of consensus is terrifyingly high; there's a strong sense of contrarian operation.

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SerRugResistant

· 2025-12-14 15:55

98% consistency? That actually makes me a bit nervous; everything being so neat always feels like there's a trap. --- Here we go again, every time the central bank takes action, the crypto market gets hit, it's really ruthless. --- That jump last time directly wiped out 30%, and the ones who are still all-in now are really brave. --- The Bank of Japan is playing its hand well, but we're the ones who have to take the hits passively. --- Predictive market with 98% consensus? Alright, then I'll just wait and see for a counter-trend move. --- December 19th, mark it on your calendar. Whether to cut losses or buy the dip, you need to plan ahead. --- Every time the central bank acts in secrecy, the market drops with it. This routine is getting old. --- The worst thing is when the whole market is certain about something; often, the opposite move is the right one.

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AltcoinTherapist

· 2025-12-14 15:55

98% consensus? Then I start to worry. Having too many people betting on one direction is never a good thing.

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LiquidationKing

· 2025-12-14 15:54

98% consensus? I don’t really believe in that stuff; history has never been so unanimous. --- Ready for another dump? Last time when the central bank moved, Bitcoin plummeted. Will the Bank of Japan do the same this time? --- Bro, when the prediction market people are all bullish, that’s usually the most dangerous time. --- Are you ready to cut losses on December 19? Haha. --- Can we really trust 98%? Feels like the same old tricks. --- Whenever the central bank raises interest rates, the crypto market crashes. That rule is really solid. --- When the prediction market is all in agreement, there’s definitely a trap waiting on the other side. --- How can anyone still believe in such consensus? I think reverse operations are more reliable.

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blocksnark

· 2025-12-14 15:51

98% consensus? This time, the Bank of Japan is probably going to do something. When the market predictions are so unanimously aligned, it's actually more prone to failure.

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RugPullAlarm

· 2025-12-14 15:29

98% consensus? Isn't that a typical case of excessive capital concentration, in plain terms, like grasshoppers on the same rope. The last wave on January 24th was also highly consensus-driven, and what happened... it directly dropped from 105,000 to 75,000. How many retail investors are still there taking the hit?

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ser_we_are_early

· 2025-12-14 15:27

98% this expectation is too consistent, feels a bit suspicious... --- Once again, we have to watch the central bank's performance. The last time that move was directly cut in half, it really hurt. --- The Japanese Central Bank's move makes the whole world tremble. What else can they do? --- If they really raise interest rates this time, how will the currency price move? Who can save my position? --- The more consistent the expectations, the greater the chance of a crash. I’ll just sit quietly and wait for a reverse operation. --- I dare not sleep the night before the 19th, afraid that I will wake up and lose a few thousand dollars again. --- The market consensus is so high that it actually makes me nervous... --- Central bank policies are so outrageous, I completely can't understand the subsequent trading logic.

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