The non-farm payroll report is difficult to interpret, and tonight is destined to be a sleepless night! 12.16 Bitcoin Auntie's Strategy

Tonight's non-farm report will include some data from October and the full data from November. The October unemployment rate will never be published. Due to the record 43-day government shutdown, workers at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were unable to collect all the necessary data during the survey. During the shutdown, hundreds of thousands of federal employees were also unemployed, which could distort the data results. Therefore, tonight's data may be a distorted figure and hard to interpret!
If the labor market for October and November appears to turn sharply downward, and Wall Street approves of the Federal Reserve's rate cut measures, investors might expect several more rate cuts by 2026. On the other hand, given the few other data points showing improvement in the labor market, if private sector employment growth exceeds expectations, the market may remain skeptical. Perhaps the only situation that could worry investors is signs of a collapse in the labor market—though currently, almost no one predicts such an outcome.
Early morning crypto prices continue to decline, with Bitcoin dropping below 86,000, and Ethereum falling below 2900. However, during the day, prices did rally a bit. If tonight's non-farm data is positive, prices may rise again tonight, but if the data is negative, it’s hard to say. So, focus on the data performance tonight! Currently, the rebound from the bottom could be an opportunity to go long!
12.16 Evening Long Strategy:
Bitcoin retraces to 86000-86500, go long, conservative entry at 85000-85500, stop around 84000, target near 87500-88000-89000, if broken, look at 90000-91000-92000, continue moving stop-loss based on situation!
Ethereum retraces to 2900-2930, go long, conservative entry at 2830-2860, stop around 2800, target near 3000-3050, if broken, look at 3100-3150-3180, continue moving stop-loss based on situation!
12.16 Evening Short Strategy:
Bitcoin rebounds to 91000-91500, short one position, stop near 92500, target near 90000-89500-89000, if broken, look at 88000-87000-86500, continue moving stop-loss based on situation!
Ethereum rebounds to 3150-3180, short one position, stop near 3230, target near 3100-3050, if broken, look at 3000-2950-2930, continue moving stop-loss based on situation!
Interest rates have been cut, and there are no recent positive catalysts, but also no major negative news. So, don’t blindly be bearish. Tonight’s data should bring some good market movements; the key is whether the data exceeds or falls short of expectations! #市场触底了吗？