#经济数据指标 The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in stock prices, which is the core judgment given by the JPMorgan team. Looking at the current situation, the US stock market has returned to historical highs, and institutional investors generally tend to lock in profits before the end of the year. What does this mean? There is indeed pressure to take profits in the short term.

But from the perspective of the blockchain, it is more interesting—large capital movements often manifest ahead of macro data. If we really need to enter a consolidation zone, we should pay attention to several signals: first, the pace of stablecoin inflows into exchanges; second, on-chain transfer activities of large wallets; third, changes in the scale of funds in major DEXs and lending protocols. These indicators can help us determine whether institutions are truly reducing their positions.

Another point worth noting is that the dovish Federal Reserve mentioned by JPMorgan, the sluggish oil prices, and the slowdown in wage growth are all actually the basis for the repricing of risk assets. If inflationary pressures do indeed ease, there may actually be a new round of liquidity release afterwards. Therefore, the current profit-taking may just be a temporary adjustment rather than a trend reversal. In the short term, observe market sentiment, while in the medium term, continue to track changes in fund flows.