#经济数据指标 The Fed's "do-or-die battle" is worth keeping an eye on. Half of the officials oppose an interest rate cut, yet Powell insists on pushing it forward. The magnitude of this disagreement directly affects the future direction of policy — which in turn impacts your assets.

I have experienced too many instances of "data coming out and reversing" in the market. This time, the core issue is quite tricky: is the slowdown in job growth due to weak demand or supply contraction? The answer is different, and the decision-making direction completely reverses. The market now takes interest rate cuts as a foregone conclusion, but Nomura economists have clearly stated – the market is underestimating the risk of not cutting rates.

The key is to see Powell's wording and the degree of voting dissent. If there are a lot of opposing votes, it indicates a real division within, and the subsequent easing space won't be that large. Barclays predicts a 25 basis point cut in December, followed by a pause in January, and a continuation in March and June. This kind of pace suggests that the Fed has already begun to hit the brakes.

The riskiest assets on the blockchain fear policy uncertainty the most. Don't be misled by short-term "interest rate cut expectations"; focus on the economic data itself, especially the unemployment rate and non-farm data - that is what truly determines the direction. Policy turning points often start to adjust before the data confirms.