#比特币价格 Bernstein's report has several data points worth following. Bitcoin pulled back 30% but ETF outflows were less than 5%, which indicates that institutional funds are indeed positioning themselves against the trend, and the narrative of retail investors' panic has been contradicted by the data.

I am cautious about the judgment that the four-year cycle has been broken, but the logic of an extended bull market cycle is valid — factors such as ample institutional liquidity, a shift in policy expectations, and support from mining costs all point in this direction. The key question is what assumptions the target price of $200,000 in 2027 is based on; if it is merely a simplistic extrapolation of historical increases, its reference value is limited.

Focus on on-chain data: It is necessary to track the holdings movements of large addresses, whether whales are continuously accumulating or gradually reducing their positions. If institutions are indeed increasing their holdings, the exchange outflow data should be able to verify this. At the same time, pay attention to the details of ETF data—specifically, what type of funds are flowing, which is more informative than the total amount.

The long-term expectation of 1 million dollars is more of a narrative, and the short-term operation holds little value. The key now is to observe whether the mid-term target of 150k (by the end of 2026) can become a support level, as well as whether the pace of institutional accumulation continues.