Today's A-share market is quite interesting—technology stocks are rising, but the Trading Volume hasn't kept up. Is this a real rise or a bull trap? Let's break it down.

**Why can external favorable factors push up A-shares?**

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the sentiment in the technology sector clearly warmed up. Nvidia's stock price rebounded, and the news of price increases in some production capacities of SMIC was released, which is indeed positive for the technology stocks in the A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets. Under the influence of this external linkage effect and the stimulus of rising chip prices, technology stocks began to become active again today.

Individual stock sentiment has been driven, which is not a bad thing in itself. Where is the problem? The overall trading volume has not increased. Funds are pushing, but there is no new capital entering the market; it's all a mutual game of existing funds. It's still to be observed how long this rotational rise can last. So don't overestimate today's rebound—tech stocks, energy, metals, and batteries all need to guard against pullbacks after rises.

**Is the decrease in volume during a rise really a bull trap?**

Yesterday, individual stocks generally fell, and the market encountered resistance after rebounding to 3937 points. Today, the opening attempted to oscillate upwards, but the space for a surge is clearly limited. To be honest, I currently have a cautiously optimistic attitude.

In terms of rhythm, the focus for today and tomorrow should be more on observation and less on action. If one really wants to take action, the earliest would be at the end of Thursday, and more prudently, it would be better to wait until Friday. This doesn’t mean to remain inactive, but rather that timing is very important.

From the market performance, it is a fact that there are more rises than falls, but this does not significantly attract outside capital. The rotation speed of sectors is very fast, overall conforming to the characteristics of a short-term bull trap. In terms of numbers, more than 3,000 stocks have risen, which sounds good, but don’t be fooled—there are at least around 4,000 stocks with a rise of less than 1 point. Most of them just oscillate between red and green, with many still undergoing fluctuations and adjustments.

So if retail investors had already controlled their positions before yesterday, they shouldn't rush to act before finding particularly good buying opportunities. In the last two or three days, the change in sentiment has been very obvious in the morning and afternoon. If there is continued shrinking trading volume and consolidation in the morning, it wouldn't be surprising to see a intraday plunge in the afternoon. I chose to continue observing in the morning, which is the correct strategy.

**How to view the sector? This is what everyone cares about most**

**Technology stocks here:**

The correlation between A-shares technology and US stocks is particularly strong. As long as concepts like Nvidia and storage chips are still rebounding in the US stock market, A-shares' CPO optical modules and semiconductor chips are likely to rise as well.

In simple terms, the reason for the strong technological interconnectivity in the global financial markets right now is that everyone’s understanding of technology has started to align. Once there are concerns about an AI bubble in any market, funds will become tight across the entire market; once that concern is dispelled, funds will become excited again. Therefore, tech stocks are currently experiencing fluctuations, and funds are cautiously pushing upwards. We look to see which market’s bubble will burst first—if it bursts, there will be a collective sell-off; if the narrative continues, then we will all embrace the bubble.

What does this mean? High risk, high reward. Technology is the hottest direction right now, and it is also the place where the risk disturbances have the largest fluctuations. If you don't have a strong heart, don't chase the highs.

**New energy and lithium mining (anti-involution theme):**

Anti-involution involves new energy, lithium mines, batteries and other raw materials, as well as photovoltaics and wind power. Cyclical non-ferrous metals are also included. Among them, lithium mines perform the strongest, while copper and aluminum are the main metals during the cycle. These price increases and anti-involution are actually one and the same - improving the supply-demand relationship and alleviating pressure on the industrial chain. This main line will run through this year and next.

The rhythm of operation is similar to technology; what leads the rise today may not be suitable for chasing high prices. A pullback is a good opportunity for low absorption.

**Domestic Consumption Sector:**

There are many directions for consumption - commercial goods, food and beverages, travel and hotels, new service consumption, and so on. Currently, commercial goods are being speculated by hot money and quantitative trading, while others are basically still in a state of repeated fluctuations at the bottom.

Compared to technology and anti-involution, the elasticity of consumption is the weakest, and the capital clustering is not so obvious. There are differences in strength and weakness, and the performance is different when it rises. If technology and anti-involution adjust, funds may rotate to consumption, but currently consumption is not the first choice for funds. This can be viewed in the long term, but in the short term, a big market trend is not coming quickly.

**Final Advice:**

I do not recommend opening new positions or adding to positions right now. The CSI 2000 has rebounded, indicating that the sentiment of most individual stocks is better than yesterday, which is favorable for holding stocks. However, adding new positions is not very meaningful—support without volume can easily lead to a pullback after a rise. The market has just opened, and by the afternoon, risk-averse sentiment may become more pronounced, making the intraday trend less optimistic.

Don't be greedy; those who are greedy at this stage often suffer the most.