The warming before the holiday season is real, but it is more of a "structural opportunity."

From another perspective, this week's rebound is not entirely false sentiment. The total market capitalization has regained above $3 trillion, at least indicating that the market has not lost confidence from core funds. Unlike a purely short-term rebound, this round of warming shows obvious structural characteristics: mainstream coins are the first to stabilize, some tracks and platform tokens are beginning to move independently, while high-risk small coins have not fully followed suit.

This suggests that the market is not "mindlessly bullish," but is engaging in risk re-pricing. Funds are more inclined to choose assets with good liquidity, clear narratives, and stable fundamentals, rather than spreading broadly. This kind of structural rebound often appears in the early to middle stages of a trend reversal, but does not equate to a full-blown bull market.

In terms of timing, the Christmas rally will indeed amplify short-term optimistic expectations, but the true determinants of the trend are macroeconomic data after the holiday, liquidity environment, and the performance of the US stock market after trading resumes. If the rebound can continue after the holiday and be accompanied by increased trading volume, then this wave of market movement could upgrade into a new trend.

At this stage, it is more like a "pre-trend probe" rather than the end point.
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