December 25, 2025 ETH Christmas Technical Analysis (11:00, UTC+8)

• Current Price: around 2,930. During the Christmas holiday, liquidity is extremely low, with BTC moving sideways; on-chain chips are scarce but contracts are de-leveraging, which may lead to “volume shrinking and needle insertion”

• Core Judgment: Daily chart shows slight bearish oscillation, 4H/2H lack clear direction; mainly trading within range, strictly controlling positions, switching to trend strategy after volume breakout

🎯 Key Price Levels (USD, layered precision)

• Support: 2,900 (intraday strong support/psychological level) → 2,870 (life line for bulls and bears) → 2,830 (accelerated breakdown) → 2,780 (strong support zone)

• Resistance: 2,960 (intraday strong resistance) → 2,980 (neckline level) → 3,000 (psychological strong pressure) → 3,050 (trend watershed)

📊 Multi-timeframe Indicators

• Daily: 20/50 moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, price below the averages; MACD negative zone, RSI≈43, no obvious divergence; declining volume, weak oscillation

• 4H: Bollinger Bands narrowing, price near middle band; KDJ flat at low levels, MACD near zero line, indicating oscillation; low volume, no clear direction

• 2H: Short-term moving averages intertwined, MACD repeatedly near zero line, short-term fast-in fast-out signals; suitable for quick switching within range

🔗 On-chain and Capital Surface

• Exchange ETH holdings continue to hit multi-year lows (about 8.7%), circulating chips are scarce; perpetual contract positions shrink, market deleveraging accelerates, volume shrinking may lead to needle insertion

• Binance suspends ETH deposits and withdrawals from 13:55 for about 1 hour, watch for liquidity fluctuations

⚙️ Trading Strategy (Actionable + Risk Control)

1. Range Trading (total position ≤30%, single trade stop loss ≤2%)

◦ Long: 2,900-2,910 light position, stop loss 2,880, target 2,950-2,960; reduce position by 50% at target 1, remaining position moved to cost basis at 2,980

◦ Short: 2,960-2,970 light position, stop loss 2,990, target 2,920-2,930; reduce position by 50% at target 1, remaining position moved to cost basis at 2,900

2. Breakout Strategy (volume increase + 1H close confirmation)

◦ Long chase: volume surge, stabilize above 2,990, retest 2,970, chase long, stop loss 2,950, target 3,020-3,050

◦ Short chase: volume drop below 2,880, rebound to 2,890, chase short, stop loss 2,910, target 2,850-2,830

3. Ironclad Risk Control: Use only limit orders/ breakout orders, prohibit market orders; avoid heavy overnight positions in low-volume markets; monitor this Friday’s $24 billion options settlement, which may trigger increased volatility

⚠️ Key Reminders

• If 2,870 is broken, or quickly drops to 2,830-2,850; if volume surges above 3,000, it may open space to 3,050-3,080

• Whale movements may trigger localized volatility, need to combine with real-time trading volume assessment
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