A certain whale entered a short position on LIT with $2.6 million. On the eve of the airdrop, market disagreements over Lighter's valuation intensified.

On December 25, according to HyperInsight monitoring, a whale address (0xdaa) gradually deposited $2.6 million as collateral into Hyperliquid yesterday and has established a leveraged LIT short position of approximately $1.256 million, with an average entry price of $3.53 and a liquidation price of $6.98. As of press time, the address is still adding to its position, with $970,000 of the collateral remaining unused. Currently, LIT is trading at about $3.47, and based on pre-market prices, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is approximately $3.4 billion. Regarding market sentiment, data from the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of “Lighter remaining with an FDV over $30 billion one day after listing” has decreased by about 7% today, now standing at around 55%. Earlier, on the 20th, it was reported that Lighter transferred 250 million LIT tokens (about 25% of the total supply) to a new address. If all these tokens are used for future airdrops, then each point would correspond to approximately 20.8 LIT tokens. Based on current pre-market prices, each point is valued at about $71.1, and most market opinions currently lean towards Lighter airdropping on the 31st.