On December 26, spot silver hit a new all-time high again, with opportunities and risks coexisting amid high volatility

Market fluctuations are never absolute; only by maintaining rationality and following the trend can one seize the opportunity amid volatility. Looking back at recent market trends, spot silver has experienced a疯狂上涨态势, with the year's increase surpassing 137%, making it the most dazzling star in the global financial markets. On the morning of December 26, spot silver gapped higher, breaking through $73 per ounce and hitting a new all-time high. As of the time of writing, London silver is quoted at $74.61 per ounce, up 2.07%, while Shanghai Silver T+D is also strengthening, trading at 18,389 RMB per kilogram, a daily increase of 6.66%. Behind this strong performance are multiple factors resonating and driving the market.

From a news perspective, the current bullish logic in the silver market remains solid. The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts by 2026 continues to heat up, with market expectations of at least a 50 basis point cut exceeding 70%, and the actual decline in real interest rates significantly enhancing silver's financial attributes. The imbalance between supply and demand is a key driver, with explosive growth in industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaic industries, AI servers, and new energy vehicles. Meanwhile, global silver production growth is sluggish due to mineral depletion and tightening environmental policies, leading to a persistent widening of the supply-demand gap. Coupled with the London Bullion Market Association's deliverable inventory falling to a ten-year low, further pushing prices higher. The capital side also shows strong performance, with recent large inflows into the silver market. Shanghai silver holdings have surpassed 450,000 lots, with accumulated funds reaching 69.2 billion RMB. However, some silver funds have already started limiting purchases, and profit-taking at high levels along with policy adjustments are gradually accumulating volatility risks.

On the technical side, spot silver shows a clear bullish dominance, with prices continuously breaking through historical resistance levels. The technical pattern remains bullish, and the medium- to long-term upward trend has not changed. However, it should be noted that the current price deviates significantly from the 50-day moving average, short-term volatility is at historical extremes, and overbought signals are evident. Intraday, key resistance for London silver is at $75.5 per ounce, with the first support at $73 per ounce, and strong support at $70 per ounce. In a liquidity-light environment, price fluctuations may further amplify.

Regarding trading strategies, the short-term core idea is to focus on "high-level oscillation and pullback layout," avoiding blindly chasing highs. International spot silver can be bought in batches after stabilizing within the $73–73.5 per ounce range, with stop-loss set below $72 per ounce, and targets at $75–75.5 per ounce. If a rebound encounters resistance near $75.5, a light short position can be attempted with a stop-loss at $76, aiming to revisit $74.

Disclaimer: This article is original by Cheng Jingsheng. All market analysis and operational suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute any investment decision basis. The precious metals market is highly volatile and influenced by macro policies, geopolitical factors, market sentiment, and other factors, carrying significant trading risks. Investors should fully understand market risks, make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and independently bear all trading losses. The author and related platforms are not responsible for any consequences arising from investment actions.