#预测市场 Seeing the influx of new project launches this week, I have to honestly say: the wealth effect is indeed tempting, but it's more important to understand the underlying logic.

From Upheaval to Yield Basis, then to Limitless and Goated, each project has its story and backing. But I want to remind everyone—whether it's the prediction market, gaming tracks, or DeFi protocols—whether their core value can support high valuations is the real consideration. I've noticed some projects have a several-fold gap between their funding valuation and TGE expected FDV, and this discrepancy often indicates the risk involved.

I've always believed that participating in new offerings isn't about chasing the trend, but about: first, understanding the project's actual operational mechanism and cash flow capability (for example, Goated already has stable income, which makes it much more reliable than air projects); second, managing individual transaction size and overall position well, and not going all-in due to FOMO; third, having a clear understanding of the team’s background, but also being cautious of the misleading effects of celebrity influence.

Currently, the market is hot, but let's not forget—after a big project week, rationality will return. Before participating in any pre-sale, ask yourself three questions: Do I truly understand this project? Can I withstand a 20x decline? Will losing this money affect my life? Only when all answers are "yes" is it the right time to enter.