Here are the key upcoming events in the crypto industry that could have the greatest impact:

1. **MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)** – The expiration of a contract on Polymarket may signal systemic risks related to the 650,000 BTC owned by MSTR.

2. **US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)** – Inflation figures could alter expectations for Fed rate cuts, affecting the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as risky assets.

3. **Federal Reserve Rate Decision (January 28, 2026)** – With a 77% probability, rates will remain unchanged; a hawkish stance could limit liquidity in the crypto market.

4. **Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline at SEC (March 27, 2026)** – The final decision on 91 applications could open the floodgates for institutional investments or cause delays.

5. **Quantum Computing Threat (March 8, 2028)** – Long-term risk of encryption breaches, prompting updates to crypto protocols with quantum attack resistance.

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## In Detail

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)

**Overview:** The contract on Polymarket related to the forecasted sale of MicroStrategy (MSTR) bitcoins by the end of 2025 is expiring soon. The company owns over 650,000 BTC (approximately $57 billion at $88K BTC price). Forced sale could cause supply shortages in the market.

**What it means:** Even a partial sale could destabilize the market, considering MSTR acts as a kind of leverage for Bitcoin. Currently, the probability of sale is assessed as low (contracts are worth about $0.009), but systemic risks remain if BTC price drops below a certain mNAV level for MSTR.

US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)

**Overview:** The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will influence Fed policy. If core inflation exceeds expectations, rates may not decrease, putting pressure on the crypto market.

**What it means:** Since cryptocurrencies are closely tied to overall market liquidity, higher inflation could trigger short-term volatility. Monitoring Bitcoin’s reaction to deviations from forecasts is crucial (market expects a 3.1% annual growth).

Federal Reserve Meeting (January 28, 2026)

**Overview:** With a 77% chance, the Fed will keep current interest rates, with 7 committee members opposing a cut. High inflation and a strong labor market support this stance.

**What it means:** Prolonged high-rate environment may reduce the appeal of cryptocurrencies as risky assets. A small chance of a softer policy could improve market sentiment. Watching Fed Chair Powell’s comments after the meeting is important.

Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline at SEC (March 27, 2026)

**Overview:** The SEC must decide on 91 crypto ETF applications, including funds with altcoins. According to Galaxy Digital, only 12 tokens meet criteria for expedited review (e.g., SOL, XRP, ADA).

**What it means:** Approval could attract billions of dollars into altcoins, while rejection may slow institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. Key indicators will include the ETH/BTC ratio and inflow volumes via ETFs.

Quantum Computing Threat (March 8, 2028)

**Overview:** Analysts warn that quantum processors could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2028, especially for wallets that reused addresses.

**What it means:** Although a long-term risk, it drives the development of quantum-resistant updates, such as Taproot implementation. Long-term investors should monitor wallet hygiene and protocol updates.

## Conclusion

**Most important event:** The Fed meeting on January 28, 2026, has a direct impact, as rate decisions directly influence global liquidity and the risk-reward ratio in crypto assets. Watch Bitcoin’s reaction to Fed statements and CPI data to understand market direction. Despite systemic risks (MSTR), quantum computing , in the first quarter of 2026, macroeconomic policy will remain the main driver. In the short term, a neutral-bullish or bearish sentiment is expected, with potential positive catalysts such as ETF approvals and technological upgrades.