## Summary

Here are the key upcoming events in the crypto industry that could have the greatest impact:

1. **MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)** – The expiration of a contract on Polymarket related to MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s Bitcoin sale forecast by the end of 2025. The company owns over 650,000 BTC (approximately )billion at (BTC price). Forced sale could cause a supply shortage in the market.

2. **US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)** – The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will influence the Fed's policy. If core inflation exceeds expectations, rates may not decrease, putting pressure on the crypto market.

3. **Federal Reserve Meeting (January 28, 2026)** – With a 77% probability, the Fed will keep current interest rates; 7 committee members oppose a cut. High inflation and a strong labor market support this stance.

4. **SEC Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline (March 27, 2026)** – The SEC must decide on 91 crypto ETF applications, including funds with altcoins. According to Galaxy Digital, only 12 tokens meet criteria for expedited review (e.g., SOL, XRP, ADA$57 .

5. **Quantum Computing Threat $88K March 8, 2028)** – Analysts warn that quantum processors could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2028, especially for wallets that reused addresses.

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## Details

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Risk (December 31, 2025)

**Overview:** A contract on Polymarket related to the forecast of MicroStrategy (MSTR) selling Bitcoin by the end of 2025 is expiring soon. The company owns over 650,000 BTC (roughly )billion at (BTC price). Forced sale could lead to a supply deficit in the market.

**Implication:** Even a partial sale could destabilize the market, considering MSTR acts as a kind of leverage for Bitcoin. Currently, the probability of sale is assessed as low (contracts are worth about $0.009), but systemic risks remain if BTC price drops below a certain mNAV level for MSTR.

US CPI Inflation Data (January 13, 2026)

**Overview:** The January CPI report will influence Fed policy. If core inflation exceeds expectations, rates may stay high, exerting pressure on the crypto market.

**Implication:** Since cryptocurrencies are closely linked to overall market liquidity, higher inflation could trigger short-term volatility. Monitoring Bitcoin's reaction to deviations from forecasts is crucial (market expects a 3.1% annual growth).

Federal Reserve Meeting (January 28, 2026)

**Overview:** With a 77% chance, the Fed will maintain current interest rates, with 7 committee members opposing a cut. High inflation and a strong labor market support this stance.

**Implication:** Prolonged high rates could reduce the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as risky assets. A small chance of a softer policy could improve market sentiment. Watching Fed Chair Powell's comments after the meeting is important.

SEC Crypto ETF Application Review Deadline (March 27, 2026)

**Overview:** The SEC needs to decide on 91 crypto ETF applications, including funds with altcoins. According to Galaxy Digital, only 12 tokens meet criteria for expedited review e.g., SOL, XRP, ADA.

**Implication:** Approval could attract billions of dollars into altcoins, while rejection may slow institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. Key indicators will include the ETH/BTC ratio and inflow volumes via ETFs.

Quantum Computing Threat March 8, 2028

**Overview:** Analysts warn that quantum processors could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2028, especially for wallets that reused addresses.

**Implication:** Although a long-term risk, it stimulates the development of quantum-resistant updates, such as Taproot implementation. Long-term investors should monitor wallet hygiene and protocol updates.

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## Conclusion

**Most significant event:** The Fed meeting on January 28, 2026, has a direct impact, as rate decisions directly influence global liquidity and the risk-reward ratio in crypto assets. Watch Bitcoin's reaction to Fed statements and CPI data to understand market direction. Despite systemic risks MSTR, quantum computing , in the first quarter of 2026, macroeconomic policy will remain the main driver. In the short term, a neutral-bullish or bearish sentiment is expected, with potential positive catalysts such as ETF approvals and technological upgrades.