Tonight at 3 a.m. EST, the Federal Reserve minutes will be released! The core impact on cryptocurrencies: the price movement anchor under the pause in rate cuts

🌍 Key Event
At 3 a.m. Beijing time tonight, the Federal Reserve's 2025 year-end meeting minutes will be published, focusing on the logic of rate pause in 2026, the largest policy divergence in 37 years, directly setting the tone for liquidity expectations in the crypto market.
📌 Key Signals from the Minutes
1. Interest Rate Anchor: Maintain a neutral range of 3.50%-3.75%, pause rate cuts to observe inflation stickiness and employment risks, significantly raising the threshold for rate cuts;
2. Degree of Divergence: 7 members oppose rate cuts in December, hawks advocate maintaining or even raising rates, doves call for substantial rate cuts, the divergence reaching a 37-year high;
3. Time Frame: Likely to pause until June 2026, with only a 47% chance of rate cuts in March, combined with new Chair appointment and hawkish voting members, easing is limited;
4. Hidden Variables: Initiate a $40 billion technical balance sheet expansion, forming a “hawkish rate + implicit liquidity” hedge.
💰 Direct Impact on Cryptocurrencies
- Hawkish surprise (bearish): If the minutes reinforce inflation vigilance and policy restraint, market expectations for rate cuts will cool down, short-term dollar yields will rise, and crypto assets as high β assets will come under pressure, with BTC potentially dropping to $70,000 and ETH testing $2,400 support levels; leverage trading costs will rise, futures basis will narrow, and institutional allocation willingness will decrease.
- Dovish tilt (bullish): If employment weakness risks are emphasized, expectations for rate cuts in March will increase, risk appetite will rebound, combined with ETF capital inflows and implicit balance sheet expansion support, BTC may surge to $92,000-$98,000, and ETH may push towards $3,600.
- Neutral scenario (volatile): When policy divergence is clear but not beyond expectations, the market will fall into a “long-term easing unchanged + short-term liquidity tightening” game, cryptocurrencies will maintain range-bound oscillations, funds will shift to low-risk arbitrage strategies, and mainstream assets will outperform thematic coins.
⚠ Key Conclusion
The core impact of the minutes on the crypto market is “re-pricing liquidity expectations,” rather than a single rate cut action. Focus tonight on the statements regarding policy divergence and balance sheet expansion details. Short-term volatility will intensify, but the medium- to long-term trend remains anchored to the start of the 2026 easing cycle.
#加密市场观察