Latest Market Change Analysis

• Sharp Rise and Pullback: The price touched around 3148.65 and then experienced significant selling pressure. Currently, it has pulled back to the 3100 level, oscillating back and forth.
• Indicator Divergence (Short-term): 1-hour chart: MACD has already shown a clear death cross signal (DIF crossing below DEA), and the green bars have turned red. This indicates that short-term bullish momentum is weakening, and there is a need to test support levels further downward.
• 4-hour chart: Although the price remains above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (3072), the KDJ has already formed a death cross at high levels, indicating that the correction is not over yet.
• Daily Level: Still in a strong zone, but after touching the upper Bollinger Band (3122), it faced resistance, requiring time to digest profit-taking.
2. Operation Position Suggestions: Small Stop-Loss Entry Reference
【Long Position: Follow the Trend and Rebound for Entry】— Safer Overall
Since the major trend (daily/4-hour) remains bullish, looking for support to buy increases the tolerance for errors.
• Entry Point A (Aggressive): Around 3070 - 3080. This is the confluence support zone of the 1-hour lower Bollinger Band and the 4-hour middle band.
• Small Stop-Loss: 3055 (a break below the 4-hour middle band would worsen the short-term trend).
• Entry Point B (Conservative): Around 3020 - 3030.
• Small Stop-Loss: 2990 (a break below 3000 is a must).
【Short Position: Play the Rebound Resistance Level】— Short-term Contrarian
Currently, short positions aim to profit from “correction oscillation,” requiring quick entries and exits.
• Entry Point: Around 3125 - 3135 (try to enter when a rebound occurs but does not break the previous high).
• Small Stop-Loss: 3155 (must be placed above the previous high of 3148; if broken, the short logic invalidates, possibly triggering a new round of rapid rise).
3. Which is Safer: Long or Short?
Conclusion: Currently, “low buy” is still safer than “high sell.”
Reasons:
1. Major trend unchanged: The daily bullish structure is very complete, and the current correction looks more like a “relay shakeout” during an upward process.
2. Risk-Reward Advantage: Going long now, if entering at support levels, the stop-loss is very small (about 20-30 points), but once breaking above 3150, the space opens up to 3200-3300.
3. Short-term risk: Market sentiment is high, and shorts face the risk of “missing capital replenishment,” meaning that a slight pullback could attract large funds to buy the dip, making it difficult for short positions to realize significant profits and prone to stop-losses.
💡 Core Operation Suggestions
• Current Observation Point: Keep a close eye on the 3070 level. If it breaks down with reduced volume, the market may go to 3020 to find support; if it stabilizes above 3070 with a long lower shadow, it is an excellent short-term entry point for longs.
• Mindset: Around 3100 is a “vacuum zone” of bullish and bearish struggle, a somewhat awkward position. It is not recommended to open orders directly at the current price of 3100; try to act near support or resistance levels.