📌 Cryptocurrency Daily Briefing | January 4

I. Macro and Geopolitical Risks (Short-term Disruptions Mainly)

The news of the US taking military action against Venezuela has been officially confirmed, coupled with Trump's tough stance on "controlling and selling Venezuela's oil reserves,"
👉 geopolitical risk is heating up, and risk assets (including crypto) are experiencing short-term corrections.

Market interpretation: This is an event-driven shock, not a change in the fundamental outlook of crypto. If oil prices and the US dollar strengthen simultaneously, it will put temporary pressure on BTC / ETH.

II. Monetary Policy Signals (Slightly Neutral to Slightly Bullish)

Federal Reserve official Powell's key points:

Tariffs are a key factor driving inflation above target.

Tariff price adjustments may be completed within 6 months.

There remains a possibility of rate cuts later this year.

Market implications:

Short-term: Inflation disruptions still present.

Medium-term: Expectations of rate cuts have not been disproven, which is not necessarily bearish for crypto valuations.

III. Institutional and Regulatory Trends (Mainline through 2026)

JPMorgan 2026 Outlook:

Investors are actively seeking a more friendly regulatory environment.

Stablecoins are significantly increasing in attractiveness within financial services.

Galaxy 2026 Forecast:

The US may launch 50+ altcoin ETFs.

The SEC might face legal challenges due to overly lax regulation.

Core Summary:
👉 Institutionalization + Compliance + Stablecoin Financialization are clear long-term directions.

IV. Industry and Capital Flows (Structural Signals)

WLFI: Will utilize strategic reserves to support USD1 ecosystem, promote Meme project adoption and liquidity
→ Meme is evolving from "pure speculation" to liquidity tool.

Tether invests in cross-border QR code payment platform SQRIL
→ USDT continues to penetrate real payment scenarios, not just short-term narratives.

Coinbase CEO: Market still lacks sufficient understanding of "content / creator tokens"
→ This sector is still in early education stages.

V. On-chain and Market Conditions (Cautiously)

Glassnode:

The current market exhibits typical features of a "long bear market phase."

Characteristics include: shrinking trading volume, low sentiment, weak rebound sustainability.

Technical (ETH): Short-term correction signals appear, with $2977–2982 as a key support zone. Falling below may lead to a drop to $2934
.

In short,

The short-term is suppressed by geopolitical and macro disruptions, but the long- to medium-term logic of "regulatory friendliness + stablecoin financialization + ETF expansion" remains unchanged; current conditions resemble more a sideways weak phase rather than a trend collapse. #加密行情预测