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The divergence at the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly apparent. Hamrick's recent remarks essentially dampen expectations of rate cuts next year—inflation remains her main concern, not employment. This has a direct impact on our follow-trade strategies.
Those traders who previously bet on rapid rate cuts now need to reassess their position logic. I've been observing a few aggressive traders; they were still shorting the dollar in early December, but now they have to face the reality of the Fed's policy shift—interest rates staying high until spring, which could give the dollar a rebound.
The key is how to follow. If you have a higher risk appetite, you can follow those quick-adjusting traders who have shifted from shorting the dollar to waiting and watching—they usually have a sharper market sense. If you're more conservative, focus on traders who stick to fundamental analysis, reduce their positions but remain patient—these traders tend to survive longer during policy shifts.
Inflation expectations haven't been fully priced in yet, and there’s still room for fluctuations before spring. Don’t rush to go all-in on one direction; diversify your positions by following several top traders with different styles, and let the market teach us what to do.