A more comprehensive macro framework for 2026: #美元 liquidity is the true "anchor"

If the market in the past few years only focused on #美联储 , then entering 2025–2026, a key change is: US dollar liquidity has shifted from a "quantity issue" to an "intermediation issue."
In other words, what the market lacks is not the dollar itself, but who is willing and able to truly release dollars.
1. US Dollar Liquidity ≠ Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
From an asset-liability perspective, dollars do not flow directly from the Federal Reserve to the market, but are mediated through the balance sheets of G-SIB large banks.
Under the current regulatory framework (SLR, LCR, NSFR, intraday liquidity requirements), whether banks expand their balance sheets and are willing to make markets has become a key variable in determining market liquidity.
The result is:
When liquidity is loose, market reactions are limited
Once it tightens, the impact is highly destructive
This is also why, even if reserves "seem to be abundant," markets frequently see simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, with interest rates suddenly losing control.
2. Nominal Liquidity vs. Available Liquidity
The commonly used formula (Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP) was very effective when bank reserves were abundant, but it no longer works.
The reason is simple:
The real bottleneck has become the space on banks' balance sheets.
Under SLR constraints, US Treasuries, repos, and loans occupy almost the same capital. Therefore, banks will prioritize high ROI activities at critical moments, marginalizing market-making and repos of low-yield government bonds.
Once the repo market tightens, hedge funds are forced to sell bonds → interest rates soar → deleveraging chain reaction, which is the most dangerous vulnerability in the current system.
3. How to judge if US dollar liquidity is "tightening"
A simplified but effective framework is:
Offshore → Onshore → Bank behavior → Asset prices
Offshore USD: Watch USD/JPY, EUR/USD cross-currency basis, and FX swaps; the more negative the basis, the greater the financing pressure
Onshore USD: Watch SOFR relative to IORB deviations, repo rates, MOVE index
Bank behavior: Abnormal use of RRP, SRF, or repo tightening without balance sheet expansion
Asset response: Stock and bond sell-offs, abnormal widening of credit spreads, good data but tighter liquidity
4. Several high-probability scenarios for 2026
Assuming SLR is not substantially eased:
US debt absorption capacity remains a hard constraint
Even if rates are cut to around 3%, smooth long-term decline remains difficult, and auction tails may become the norm
TGA's impact on the market is amplified
After RRP is nearly exhausted, changes in TGA will significantly increase the impact on repo rates
Repo is the biggest tail risk source
At quarter-end, tax periods, and basis trades, if they spiral out of control, volatility will be intense
On a macro level, a more likely scenario is: loose money + tight credit. In this environment, stock-bond correlation analysis fails, and traditional 60/40 or 64 portfolios continue to be under pressure.
5. Implications for ordinary investors
Cash remains the most important defensive asset
Gold and commodities are effective tools for hedging liquidity risk
It is essential to clearly understand which part of the liquidity transmission chain an asset is in
— Low-liquidity assets (such as altcoins) are most prone to sudden drying up and flash crashes during tightening phases
In one sentence:
Future risks are not about directional judgment, but whether liquidity is "permitted" to exist.