Market Trends and Institutional Perspectives Analysis

To give you a clear understanding of these core viewpoints, I have organized them into the following key aspects:

📈 Market Transformation: From “Speculation Cycle” to “Structural Maturity”

Core Viewpoint: The traditional halving-driven speculation cycle theory is becoming invalid.
Main Evidence/Manifestations:
Several institutions (such as Messari, Coinbase) have proposed the “Death of the Cycle,” suggesting that the future will be dominated by structural maturity.
Market logic is shifting from retail sentiment to institutional fundamentals and cash flow analysis.
Value will focus more on “ownership tokens” with real income, application scenarios, and cash flow models.

Current Main Supporting Factors
Core Viewpoint: Institutionalization and new demand form the basis of prices.
Main Evidence/Manifestations:
Continuous inflow of institutional funds: Spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have attracted traditional capital, changing demand structures.
Emergence of new demand sources: Sovereign states (like the US) and corporations incorporating cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets or as reserve assets, potentially bringing incremental demand.
Deepening of technological applications: AI agent economy, RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization, Layer 2 scaling, etc., aimed at creating real utility and cash flows.

Current Debate on the “Four-Year Cycle”

Core Viewpoint: The validity of the cycle is challenged, but emotional volatility remains.
Main Evidence/Manifestations:
Cycle may become invalid: Due to the structural changes mentioned above, some believe that traditional sharp bull and bear cycles may be replaced by “slow bulls” or “super cycles.”
Cycle may be delayed or reshaped: Fidelity analysts point out that if strictly following the four-year cycle, the market should have peaked and entered a bear market. The current decline could be the start of a bear market or just a correction within a bull market.
High uncertainty: Galaxy Digital notes that options market pricing shows that by the end of 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is nearly equal, reflecting high market divergence.

Risks and Uncertainties to Watch

Core Viewpoint: Transition involves volatility, not a universal bull market.
Main Evidence/Manifestations:
“Altcoin season” may be absent: Funds may be more concentrated in leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while long-tail tokens with weak fundamentals face risks.
Macro environment impact: Global central bank monetary policies (especially liquidity conditions) remain key variables.
Regulatory policies: Clarification of regulatory frameworks in major markets like the US will influence institutional entry.

Overall, the current crypto market is more likely in a “paradigm shift” phase rather than simply repeating past cyclical rebounds. Market drivers are shifting from the narrative of halving and liquidity speculation to more complex factors such as institutional allocation, practical utility, and cash flows.

Regarding the question “Is this the start of a bull market or the last rebound”:

If you believe a bull market equals a broad rise across all tokens with rapid surges, then such a market may not simply repeat.
From the perspective of a more stable market foundation and value discovery focusing on fundamentals, this could mark the beginning of a healthier, more sustainable new phase. This process will be accompanied by high volatility and divergence.

Final judgment may need to wait until mid-2026, when clearer signals can be observed based on whether prices hit new highs, institutional fund flows, and macroeconomic changes.

Do you think this is the start of a bull market or the last rebound?