#We My first post of 2026#From 98000 to 95000, Bitcoin pulls back after the rally. How far can the rebound go?

Last night, the weekly unemployment claims were announced, coming in below market expectations, indicating that the labor market remains flexible and shows signs of stability. At the same time, many Federal Reserve officials issued signals during their statements that they are not rushing to cut interest rates, and the overall tone was hawkish, which cooled short-term easing expectations. In this context, the cryptocurrency market temporarily declined and weakened, and Bitcoin continued its correction throughout the day, reaching a low of about 95100 early morning; Ethereum also declined, reaching a low of about 3280 early morning, almost erasing the rebound space before the US market opened.
From a macro perspective, the probability that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will remain unchanged in January is still 95%, as initial demand data alleviated concerns about a deterioration in the labor market, giving the Fed more confidence not to rush into policy adjustments. Additionally, the escalation of hawkish statements by officials reintroduced pressure on short-term liquidity expectations, risk asset sentiment declined, and the crypto market began to retreat, entering a phase of correction and recovery.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin on the daily chart showed its first bearish close after several days of continuous rise, indicating the beginning of short-term top signs; the MACD on the four-hour chart formed a deadly crossover and started expanding below zero, while the RSI indicator clearly moved downward from overbought territory, with a noticeable decline in momentum, indicating that the current correction is a rebound correction rather than a continuation of a strong trend. However, it should be noted that the price has now fallen close to the middle of the channel on the four-hour chart, and short-term support is expected; the weak expansion on the hourly chart has also begun to slow down, meaning that a rebound could be confirmed first, then continue to decline under pressure.
Regarding trading pace, today focuses on the strength of the rebound. Short-term resistance on the upside is related to the middle of the channel on the hourly chart at 96300, and the highest point of the nightly rebound at 97000. These levels represent typical pressure zones for the rebound; short-term support is centered around the middle of the channel on the four-hour chart at 94800, and if broken, the correction space will expand, and the price may test the upper boundary of the previous range again at 94000–93000. This range is very important, and if the price cannot hold it, it means the rebound has almost ended, and the market will revert to the previous oscillation range, with continued weak correction patterns.
As for Ethereum, it is relatively more stable compared to Bitcoin, but the overall pace remains weak. The rebound momentum has weakened over the last two days, closing with a bearish candle on the daily chart, and the MACD on the four-hour chart shows synchronized weakness, indicating a recovery phase after a weak rebound. The market today focuses on support at the middle of the channel on the four-hour chart at 3270, and if broken, the decline will intensify, with support tested at 3200–3150; short-term resistance is at the highest point of the rebound over the past two days at 3370–3400, a significant pressure zone, which should be treated as resistance until effectively broken.
Overall, whether Bitcoin or Ethereum, they are now in a balance phase between overall pressure and technical correction, with a general tendency toward correction under pressure rather than trend continuation. It is not advisable to buy heavily; it is better to wait for confirmation of the rebound after pressure, or wait to identify the critical support level before making a decision.
Tonight, many Federal Reserve officials will continue to make statements, which will influence market expectations regarding the pace of rate cuts, and short-term sentiment volatility may increase. Therefore, close monitoring and control of position sizes are necessary!