Review of the Historical Impact of Trump Tariff Policies on the Crypto Market: Short-term Shocks and Long-term Rebound Patterns

Historically, US tariff hikes have caused short-term panic in the crypto space, but subsequent negotiations, policy suspensions, or macroeconomic easing often lead to rapid rebounds. Here are key historical cases:
1. 2018-2019 US-China Trade War (Trump’s First Term)
Imposed 10-25% tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods, affecting hardware like mining machines.
Impact: BTC dropped from $19,000 to $3,000, mining costs increased, hash rate temporarily declined by 5-10%, exacerbating the bear market.
Follow-up: China-US negotiations reached a “Phase One Agreement,” suspending some tariffs; Federal Reserve cut rates + QE injected liquidity.
Result: BTC rebounded from $3k to over $60k, a rise of over 20 times, institutional entry accelerated, and the “digital gold” narrative strengthened.

2. February-March 2025 Tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China
25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China.
Impact: BTC plummeted from $95k to below $80k, with over $1 billion in 24-hour liquidation, high correlation with Nasdaq.
Follow-up: Most tariffs suspended for 90 days through diplomatic negotiations.
Result: BTC recovered to over $100k, market cap increased by 15%, ETF net inflows reached $2.9 billion, reinforcing its long-term hedge attribute.

3. April 2025 “D-Day” Comprehensive Tariffs (on 90 countries)
Average tariff rate rose from 2.4% to 25.1%, a historic high.
Impact: BTC fell from $85k to $81k, with $1.9 billion in liquidations, market cap shrank by 40%.
Follow-up: The next day, most tariffs on many countries were suspended for 90 days through international negotiations.
Result: The next day, BTC +5%, ETH +9%, after April, up 11%, ETF inflows reached $1.2 billion, benefiting as an inflation hedge.

4. Current EU Tariff Threat Event
10-25% tariffs on EU goods, mainly targeting Greenland mineral deposits/facilities. The event directly caused BTC to flash crash to around $92k, with over $700-800 million in 24-hour liquidations, and a sharp shift in market risk appetite (gold/silver hitting new highs, crypto markets broadly declining).

Subsequently, the situation may be resolved through court rulings or negotiation suspensions. Currently, regarding this tariff event, Polymarket shows market sentiment leaning towards “some countries may implement tariffs, but full implementation is unlikely,” consistent with the historical ‘negotiation chips + pressure tools’ pattern. The EU and NATO member states have issued strong protests, diplomatic resistance has increased significantly, further lowering the probability of full implementation.

This article is for event analysis only, not investment advice.

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