ETH faces multiple pressures: policy changes and liquidation risks simultaneously

Ethereum (ETH) has recently fallen into a consolidation trap. According to the latest data, the current price fluctuates around $2720, with a 24-hour low of $2690, down 3.97%. This oscillating trend, neither clearly upward nor downward, makes market participants feel uncomfortable. However, hidden beneath this seemingly calm surface, multiple major variables are brewing, ready to completely change the market direction.

Federal Reserve Chair Change: A Turning Point in Macro Policy

The most attention-grabbing policy development comes from the US political circle. Reports indicate that Trump is considering replacing the Federal Reserve Chair, and an informed source has hinted that the next Chair candidate is almost confirmed and will be a “heavyweight.” Market focus on a candidate from BlackRock has significantly increased.

The potential impact of this personnel change should not be underestimated. Once the new Chair takes office, the US monetary policy style may undergo major adjustments. Changes in dollar exchange rate expectations and interest rate trends will directly impact global financial markets. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies are bound to experience intense volatility. Investors need to be fully prepared for a shift in market sentiment.

Ethereum’s Two Major Liquidation Landmines: The Critical Point of Risks and Opportunities

On-chain data reveals an even more urgent crisis. Based on liquidation data from major exchanges, ETH faces liquidation pressure at two key price levels:

Downside risk: If ETH falls below $2850, the liquidation strength of longs will reach approximately $771 million. This price point has become an important support zone in the market.

Upside pressure: Conversely, if ETH rises above $3050, the scale of short liquidations will be even more alarming—reaching $1.083 billion. This indicates that the short positions’ defense line is also fragile.

These two price points are like hidden “detonation devices”; once triggered, chain reactions will rapidly push the market into swift movement. For investors, these critical points are both risks and opportunities.

Technical Analysis: Weak Market Structure Still Unchanged

From the 4-hour chart, ETH is currently oscillating around $2950. The nearest resistance on the upside is at $3050 (also a liquidation dense zone), with strong resistance further away at $3300.

The Bollinger Bands indicator shows the midline at $3014, upper band at $3167, and lower band at $2862. The current price is below the midline, indicating a generally weak trend.

The MACD indicator is below the zero line, with DIF and DEA still hovering in negative territory. However, the MACD histogram is slightly turning red, suggesting some easing of selling pressure, but the rebound momentum has not yet been established. The RSI is around 36, in a weak zone but not yet oversold, indicating further downside potential.

Trading Strategy: Wait for Clear Signals

Considering macro policy, on-chain liquidation data, and technical analysis, the current approach should be mainly observational.

A suggested approach is to consider partial sell-offs around $2980-$3000, with stop-loss set above $3050. Initial targets are around $2860; if further declines occur, $2780 will be a key focus. It’s especially important to note that once the price falls below the $2850 key support, the triggering of long liquidations could accelerate the market downward.

Market Outlook: Waiting for the “Trigger Point” to Arrive

The current market state is like a device already primed, just waiting for the “trigger” to be pulled. This trigger could be Trump officially announcing the new Fed Chair or ETH reaching the critical levels of $2850 or $3050. Until then, sideways consolidation remains the most probable scenario.

But once a breakout occurs, the market movement will be shocking. Therefore, the most prudent approach now is: either patiently wait for a higher shorting opportunity or wait for a key level to be effectively broken before entering. There’s little need to intervene in the middle.

The market always offers opportunities; the key is to grasp them with a calm mindset. Before clear signals appear simultaneously from policy expectations, on-chain data, and technical analysis, cautious and patient waiting is often the best trading strategy.